基本原理,概念及评估办法

引言 人们普遍认为,全球气候变暖在北极将进一步放大,由于平流层臭氧修复的可能延误,紫外线B(UV-B)辐射可能继续增加,北极环境及其居民可能特别易受这类环境变化的影响.上述共识促进了对气候变化影响的国际评估工作.北极气候影响评估(ACIA)是一项为时4年的研究,结果出版了一篇重要的科研报告[1]并产生了其他的成果.在本文以及本期Ambio专刊下面的文章中,我们提供了报告中针对北极陆地生态系统(从树线群落交错带到极地荒漠)的部分研究成果.     

Prioritizing Abandoned Coal Mine Reclamation Projects Within the Contiguous United States Using Geographic Information System Extrapolation

Coal mine reclamation projects are very expensive and require coordination of local and federal agencies to identify resources for the most economic way of reclaiming mined land. Location of resources for mine reclamation is a spatial problem. This article presents a methodology that allows the combination of spatial data on resources for the coal mine reclamation and uses GIS analysis to develop a priority list of potential mine reclamation sites within contiguous United States using the method of extrapolation. The extrapolation method in this study was based on the Bark Camp reclamation project. The mine reclamation project at Bark Camp, Pennsylvania, USA, provided an example of the beneficial use of fly ash and dredged material to reclaim 402,600 sq mi of a mine abandoned in the 1980s. Railroads provided transportation of dredged material and fly ash to the site. Therefore, four spatial elements contributed to the reclamation project at Bark Camp: dredged material, abandoned mines, fly ash sources, and railroads. Using spatial distribution of these data in the contiguous United States, it was possible to utilize GIS analysis to prioritize areas where reclamation projects similar to Bark Camp are feasible. GIS analysis identified unique occurrences of all four spatial elements used in the Bark Camp case for each 1 km of the United States territory within 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 km radii from abandoned mines. The results showed the number of abandoned mines for each state and identified their locations. The federal or state governments can use these results in mine reclamation planning.     

Computation of particles’ ascent from a cavity behind passing shock wave

We study numerically the dynamics of particles of dispersed phase in a turbulent gas flow in planar shock waves (SWs) sliding along a solid surface with a depression of trapezoid shape. The ascent of particles from the cavity walls has been computed in the approximation of a rarefied gas–particle mixture. A considerable influence of the passing SW strength and the initial location of particles on the characteristics of particles’ ascent, the non-monotonicity of the dependence of the particle-ascent height on the initial longitudinal coordinate, and the SW Mach number, and a possibility of the formation of particles’ accumulation and removal zones on the depression bottom are shown.     

Nonlinearities in mathematical ecology: Phenomena and models: Would we live in Volterra's world?

Presented is a critical survey of canonical nonlinear models in theoretical population ecology, namely single-species population, prey–predator, competition, migration within a metapopulation, and trophic chains. Various nonlinear effects, like hysteresis, structural instability, dissipative structures, dynamic chaos, etc., do exist in these models, but the problem how to detect these phenomena in real ecosystems is not yet solved. In the mathematics of nonlinear models, the central question is whether the simplest, i.e., Volterra-type, nonlinearity is sufficient to reproduce a variety of nonlinear phenomena in a given model or we need a more sophisticated formalism. Examples are considered where the Volterra models fail. Although fundamental physical principles, like, e.g., the mass conservation law, should work in ecology too, the ecological origin of the models often causes mathematical effects which are distinct from those in theoretical physics. For example, the trophic-chain model does reveal a kind of chaotic behaviour, but the “ecological strange attractor” occupies an intermediate position between Lorenz's and Feigenbaum's attractors; moreover, the phase volume of our system contracts, hence the system is dissipative (like a Lorenz's one) in spite of its matter conservation property. Nevertheless, when applied properly, physical concepts, like, e.g., the thermodynamic notion of exergy, give better insight both to the patterns of nonlinear ecosystem behaviour and to comparison of the patterns.     

The environmental comparison of landfilling vs. incineration of MSW accounting for waste diversion

This study evaluates the environmental performance and discounted costs of the incineration and landfilling of municipal solid waste that is ready for the final disposal while accounting for existing waste diversion initiatives, using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Parameters such as changing waste generation quantities, diversion rates and waste composition were also considered. Two scenarios were assessed in this study on how to treat the waste that remains after diversion. The first scenario is the status quo, where the entire residual waste was landfilled whereas in the second scenario approximately 50% of the residual waste was incinerated while the remainder is landfilled. Electricity was produced in each scenario. Data from the City of Toronto was used to undertake this study. Results showed that the waste diversion initiatives were more effective in reducing the organic portion of the waste, in turn, reducing the net electricity production of the landfill while increasing the net electricity production of the incinerator. Therefore, the scenario that incorporated incineration performed better environmentally and contributed overall to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions because of the displacement of power plant emissions; however, at a noticeably higher cost. Although landfilling proves to be the better financial option, it is for the shorter term. The landfill option would require the need of a replacement landfill much sooner. The financial and environmental effects of this expenditure have yet to be considered.     

Spatially mixed crops to control the stratified dispersal of airborne fungal diseases

Intraspecific crop diversification is thought to be a possible solution to the disease susceptibility of monocultured crops. We modelled the stratified dispersal of an airborne pathogen population in order to identify the spatial patterns of cultivar mixtures that could slow epidemic spread driven by dual dispersal mechanisms acting over both short and long distances. We developed a model to simulate the propagation of a fungal disease in a 2D field, including a reaction-diffusion model for short-distance disease dispersal, and a stochastic model for long-distance dispersal. The model was fitted to data for the spatio-temporal spread of faba bean rust (caused by Uromyces viciae-fabae) through a discontinuous field. The model was used to compare the effectiveness of eight different planting patterns of cultivar mixtures against a disease spread by short-distance and stratified dispersal. Our combined modelling approach provides a reasonably good fit with the observed data for the spread of faba bean rust. Similar predictive power could be expected for the management of resource-mediated invasions by other airborne fungi. If a disease spreads by short-distance dispersal, random mixtures can be used to slow the epidemic spread, since their spatial irregularity creates a natural barrier to the progression of a smooth epidemic wave. In the context of stratified dispersal, heterogeneous patterns should be used that include a minimum distance between susceptible units, which decreases the probability of infection by long-distance spore dispersal. We provide a simple framework for modelling the stratified dispersal of disease in a diversified crop. The model suggests that the spatial arrangement of components in cultivar mixtures has to accord with the dispersal characteristics of the pathogen in order to increase the efficiency of diversification strategies in agro-ecosystems and forestry. It can be applied in low input agriculture to manage pathogen invasion by intercropping and cultivar mixtures, and to design sustainable systems of land use.     

Past changes in Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, climate and UV radiation

At the last glacial maximum, vast ice sheets covered many continental areas. The beds of some shallow seas were exposed thereby connecting previously separated landmasses. Although some areas were ice-free and supported a flora and fauna, mean annual temperatures were 10-13 degrees C colder than during the Holocene. Within a few millennia of the glacial maximum, deglaciation started, characterized by a series of climatic fluctuations between about 18,000 and 11,400 years ago. Following the general thermal maximum in the Holocene, there has been a modest overall cooling trend, superimposed upon which have been a series of millennial and centennial fluctuations in climate such as the "Little Ice Age spanning approximately the late 13th to early 19th centuries. Throughout the climatic fluctuations of the last 150,000 years, Arctic ecosystems and biota have been close to their minimum extent within the most recent 10,000 years. They suffered loss of diversity as a result of extinctions during the most recent large-magnitude rapid global warming at the end of the last glacial stage. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems and biota such as large vertebrates are already under pressure and are particularly vulnerable to current and projected future global warming. Evidence from the past indicates that the treeline will very probably advance, perhaps rapidly, into tundra areas, as it did during the early Holocene, reducing the extent of tundra and increasing the risk of species extinction. Species will very probably extend their ranges northwards, displacing Arctic species as in the past. However, unlike the early Holocene, when lower relative sea level allowed a belt of tundra to persist around at least some parts of the Arctic basin when treelines advanced to the present coast, sea level is very likely to rise in future, further restricting the area of tundra and other treeless Arctic ecosystems. The negative response of current Arctic ecosystems to global climatic conditions that are apparently without precedent during the Pleistocene is likely to be considerable, particularly as their exposure to co-occurring environmental changes (such as enhanced levels of UV-B, deposition of nitrogen compounds from the atmosphere, heavy metal and acidic pollution, radioactive contamination, increased habitat fragmentation) is also without precedent.     

Comparative equilibrium studies of sorption of Pb(Ⅱ) ions by sodium and calcium alginate

The absorption of Pb(Ⅱ) ions from aqueous solution by different alginate compounds was studied in a batch sorption system.Water soluble sodium alginate and insoluble calcium alginate beads were investigated.The lead-binding capacity of both alginate compounds was highest within the pH range 6-8.The binding capacities and rates of Pb(lI) ions by alginate compounds were evaluated.The Langmuir,Freundlich,and Bruneaur,Emmet and Teller (BET) sorption models were applied to describe the isotherms and isotherm ...